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Mobile Oracle Part 3: SMS Thrives! SMS Dies! Wait, Which Is It??

Part 3

And now we have the final act.  In our previous two posts we covered operating systems, hardware, industry trends, and financials.  Today we wrap up our predictions with a look at the structure of the mobile internet and a couple of overall predictions.

We do have one more prediction post after today’s post.  It will come straight from some of our GWC members.  It should be interesting to see how our local Chinese members view things versus what the foreigners working in China think.  Don’t miss it!

Structure

Mobile applications will dominate consumer internet services in 2012, however, very few players will emerge as stand-alone companies. Mobile app economics will not support single-app startups. Advertisement or paid apps will prove to be insufficient.. Survivors will include a few dominant apps (i.e. Instagram and copycats), large platforms with apps (i.e. Zynga), or apps for existing business models (i.e. Taobao and Amazon).
— Arman Zand, Senior Vice President at Silicon Valley Bank

2012 will belong to ubiquitous connectivity. Connectivity – powered by communications and mobile technologies will lead innovations across a variety of businesses. Connectivity now is a horizontal, rather than a vertical, that is a key ingredient to improving almost every business. If a category is not already being transformed by connectivity and better customer experience, in 2012 it will be. To take just one example, almost everything interesting happening in healthcare is related to connectivity, social networking, or both, as healthcare systems around the world struggle to find innovative systemic solutions to sharing information, rising costs, aging populations, and living with chronic diseases.
— Sudip Nandy, CEO at Aricent Group

My prediction: “Contrary to popular belief, SMS will continue to grow in 2012. SMS will decline in P2P communications as IM and social media apps like FaceBook take that space. But SMS is being embraced by the mobile marketing/consumer brand crowd, as it is an easy way for them to communicate with their market based on the lowest common denominator handset and platform.”
— Caroline Lewko, CEO at Wireless Industry Partnerships

2012 prediction: Mobile TV and instant content that can be consumed on the go via the telecom provider or apps will drive the mobile industry in 2012. This means that more than devices, it will be the content companies that will be in focus this year and apps that manage to combine device strengths with intelligent content will see geometrical growth.
— Katvita, Director at Web Spiders Group

Retail and e-tail further converges as apps like Amazon’s pricecheck become more popular. Location aware, multi vendor price comparison apps show the instore price, cheapest price in your area, and online price making retail stores more like inventoryless showrooms with automated delivery.
–Dan O’Prey, Designer & Co-Founder at MadeiraCloud

My prediction for 2012,”SMS revenues in the developed markets will get a major blow .With the increasing smartphone and flat fee data access penetration in these markets, OTT apps will become more popular as the primary means of text communication as it gives the end user a better way of expressing themselves. Mobile operators better prepare themselves on how to tackle this development”.
— Jonie Oostveen, Director of Strategic Partnerships at E-Buddy

In my opinion, I strongly believe and hope that 2012 will definitely be the year of “Policy Reforms” for this wonderful and dynamic sector. At present the Indian Mobile Industry today faces turbulent times due to a number of factors restraining its profitability. While there lies ample scope and potential in the sector, the lack of supportive policies, an overtly regulated system with no infrastructure status, unreasonably high tax structure, high regulatory levies and scarcity of key resources such as spectrum denies the private telecom operators a healthy profitable growth in their businesses. We are hopeful that with a favorable National Telecom Policy 2011, the Cellular Mobile Industry will bounce back to the profitability path and will gain investors’ confidence and will see inflow of Domestic Investment and FDI for capital investment required in the sector.
— Rajan S. Mathews, Director General at Cellular Operators Association of India

In 2012 convergence will occur across mobile phones, computers, tables and televisions in a way that is felt tangibly by average consumers.   Cloud computing will allow consumers to store, access and share data seamlessly requiring interoperability across all devices.   Disruptive opportunities will emerge from applications and business models that exploit interoperability, location awareness, real-time targeted information and social networking in new and interesting ways.
— Paul Asel, Managing Director at Nokia Ventures

Consumers in 2012 will equally be comfortable using mobile for search and discovery as they do the Internet. In parallel, we’ll continue to see a blossoming of new applications and services that are uniquely suited to mobile devices.  Mobile commerce-related services will surpass entertainment and time-wasting services.
— Fritz Demopoulous, Co-Founder at Qunar

I predict that in 2012 the mobile audience will become key for marketers and we will see a huge growth of mobile advertising industry with a transfer of marketing investments from traditional media such as TVs into the mobile space. I believe that we will see the raise of new advertising models that will also support the increase of mobile commerce services.
— Antonio Tomarchio, CEO at Beintoo

Overall

If we look back to 2012 ten years from now, it might be a watershed year for mobile internet. High vlolume of low end smart phone production, smart TV being launched, Apple facing WP7’s challenge after losing Steve Jobs as the leader, mobile chips iterates faster every day, all hardward manufactors are getting closer to the software and service part on supply chian, the development of HTML5, cloud computing service getting acutualized by individual users possessing multiple mobile devices. All these facts indicates that the world of wireless internet is being connected and merged quickly among platforms, terminals, users and software/hardware manufactors, it might be one of the most centerless, directionless and disordered year for wireless internet, but a new world is about to be formed in such a year.
— Feng Li, Partner at IDG Capital Partners

Everyone gives up on mobile phones and resorts back to using paper cups connected with string.
— Loz Newbold, Internet Traveler

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