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Mobile Oracle Part 2: 2012 Will Be A Year Of Crisis

Part 2

2012 will be a year of crisis.  A sentiment worthy of an oracle’s wisdom.  

To continue where we left off with Part 1 (Part 3 here) of the Mobile Oracle series, we now peer into the realm of Industry Trends and Finance.  Has our crystal ball managed to push away the fog that shrouds the future??  (Queue the overly dramatic, bass heavy soundtrack now)

By the way, in case you’ve been wondering, the banner picture is a depiction of  Pythia, the Oracle at Delphi.  The Temple of Apollo, where the oracle was located, is a major archaeological site located in southern Greece near the modern day town of Delphi.

The oracle originated before the temple was converted to worship Apollo, but  the oracle continued on even after the conversion.  The oracle was always a female priestess and was consulted frequently for her wisdom (note, it was a series of women over time, not the same woman for hundreds of years).   Judging by the ambiguity in some of her statements, she may have well been the very first attorney!  *budah ching*  You can find some of the oracles predictions here.

See, we do more than just teach you about mobile technology here at mobiSights – now you can show your girlfriend/boyfriend/significant other you’re not just a pretty face!

I know, you’re welcome.

Industry Trends

A neologism will become mainstream: m-health.The convergence of technology, self-awareness and the need to control social security costs will push forward the usage of connected devices and related applications. This is a step toward the pre-diagnosis and the corrective devices, which will improve drastically our lives…
— Cyril Ebersweiler, Founder at Chinacclerator

Next year is going to be the year of mobile platform services. The Mobile Internet Industry is developing and “auxiliar” tools will be created not just as an evolution of online tools but directly born mobile. The growth of investment in the industry and increase in competition, will create an opportunity for new entrants with disruptive and more efficient solutions.
— Oscar Ramos, CEO at DAD Asia

We will see a major shift in user behavior in 2012, shifting from the geeks to the inexperienced John Doe. New types of applications may evolve from this shift and we might see a brand new set of applications and mobile internet companies catering the mass population.
— Harry Man, Partner at Matrix Partners China

Weixin will become the dominant messenger, the social layer in mobile. Weixin will become the hub for all of Tencent’s other mobile services, including games. Tencent is already ahead of the curve in developing content for smartphones, and Weixin will cement its leadership.
— Kai Lukoff, Co-Founder at TechRice

My #1 prediction for 2012 is that hyperlocal mobile advertising will make significant strides and become an essential piece of every brick and mortar brand’s advertising campaign.
— Inman Breaux, VP of Publisher Relations at AirPush

We are using 10 times more devices than in 2006, reaching 50 billion today, thanks to mobile devices. People are more easy to shop anywhere and anytime which favours the growth of M commerce. Augmented Reality capable devices with virtual try-on function will becoming a boosting solution to the M-commerce market and 50 percent of the main e-commerce site will use AR to their M-commerce strategy by 2013. Consumer’s mobile experience will be brought to another stage then.
— Phillipe DePassorio, Head of Asia Pacific at Total Immersion

Mobile users will experience “notification fatigue” and look for more meaningful services. With so many apps and IM services, the noise level is rapidly becoming unbearable and advanced users are gradually opting out of social networks and other interruptive “real-time web” services. While many startups keep flocking to more sharing, more pictures, more videos to create more noise within the noise, services targeting the solving of real-life problems will emerge, side-stepping the social media ruckus to provide meaningful signal. Among them might be TaskRabbit, Zaarly and – if all goes well – our very own DayDeed.
— Benjamin Joffe, Chief Smaritan at DayDeed

HTML5 will displace native mobile development in 2012 – In 2012, the tide will turn as developers embrace HTML5 cross-platform mobile development.  More developers will begin HTML5 mobile web projects than those starting native efforts.  Dozens of high profile “competitive” app stores will show up in 2012, most of them featuring apps composed with HTML5.  Simple reason – write once, deploy to many becomes reality.
— Joe Monty, Vice President at Appmobi

The Rise of HTML5 for Mobile in 2012. 2012 will be the end of the world as predicted by the Mayans.  We will all continue to walk the earth, it will just be the beginning of the end for native mobile apps.  With the fracturing both across and within the mobile OS ecosystem I boldly predict that the growth of HTML5 for mobile games and data will become increasingly attractive.  And if I’m wrong?  Well, then the world may end anyway and nobody will be any wiser….
— Richard Robinson, Co-founder and International President at Youlu

In 2012, the mobile world will see the emergence of The Big 5 – top five mobile networks/apps that are way ahead of the hundreds of thousands of app developers in terms of revenues, users and engagement. In a parallel vein, I predict 2012 will see a significant consolidation in the app space, at least 10%-20% of “smaller” independent developers  will merge or perish at a much faster rate than ever before.
— Narry Singh, CEO of Outfit7

In 2012, Over 50% American adult mobile phone owners will download at least one app on their phones.Why? Accordingly to Pew Research Center, the share of adult cell phone owners who have downloaded an app to their phone nearly doubled in the past two years – rising from 22% in September 2009 to 38% in August 2011.
— Edith Yeung, Founding Partner at RightVentures


Sequel of the past crisis, 2012 will have a similar bitter flavor, with a twist. With IPOs overseas halted for quite a while, and the ichinastock (index tracking stocks of overseas-listed Chinese companies) underwater, 2012 will be a year of strategic investments and M&A consolidation by the “big boys” (the Tencent, Baidu, Alibaba and Shandas of the world) investing heavily or providing exits to VCs by scooping up innovative mobile startup in different sectors such as gaming, geolocation & discovery, mobile advertising & search and e-commerce spaces. 2012 also be a year where the dearth of good and well-trained mobile developers and business development teams will be felt.
— Bruno Bensaid, Founder & Partner at Shanghaivest

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