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Mobile Oracle 2012: Windows Phone 8 overshadows HTML5, RIM Fails Says Glu Mobile CEO

Part 1

Part 2 can be found here.

Over the past couple of weeks, mobiSights has been doing some research…into the FUTURE! (Make sure to add the appropriate amount of reverb on that last part)

So what have we managed to learn?  Well, 2012 is going to be an interesting crossroads for the mobile tech industry.  Hardware, platforms, operating systems — everything seems to be on the cusp of major changes and 2012 has been picked to be the year that will herald these changes.  While the verdict is out on whether the world will come to and end in 2012, I will go on record and say we are definitely going to see the end of several things we’ve come to considered constants over the last few years.

No, I’m not saying Apple is going to go bankrupt…but I think we will finally see the iPad’s dominance of the tablet market begin to erode.  ICS combined with Google’s semi-rumored tablet (think Nexus series for the tablet market) will be the one-two punch that shows the industry how the current giant can be brought down.  Apple won’t go down easily though.

I also predict 2012 will be the beginning of new ventures in China.  The first being the arrival of my iPhone 4S from the States!  But joking aside, we’ve seen some interesting plans that are in work from some of the bigger names abroad, so be sure to stay tuned to mobiSights and GMIC2012 to see what actually happens.

But enough of me, let’s hear from the guys that really matter.  Over the next few days we will hear from Google, Nokia, Silicon Valley Bank, Deutsche Bank, Glu Mobile, Outfit7, InMobi, and more….even our readers!

*I have broken the predictions up by category.  You may not agree with how each is categorized, but  be cool, my babies, be cool.*

Operating System

I predict that in Q4/12 HTML5 hype will be overshadowed by the rise of WP8 for mobile.  WP8’s launch will solidify MSFT as the clear third horse in the smartphone ecosystem race.  RIM’s launch of Blackberry 10 devices will occur even later and be more poorly-received than their current revision to mid 2012.
— Niccolo de Masi, CEO at Glu Mobile

Android will be an undisputed leader by far, by end of 2012.With device reaching mass-market price points across developing markets in Asia and Africa, by end of 2012, Android ecosystem globally will dwarf all other smartphone ecosystems combined and that will gravitate global developers, publishers and content players towards Android, making it an even more natural choice for consumers, OEMs, telecom operators and all other players across the value-chain.
— Atul Satija, VP & MD of Asia-Pacific at InMobi

In 2012, Android device activations will surpass 1M/day with sub 100EUR devices driving market demand. Despite this impressive growth, the iPhone App Store will continue to generate 2-4 times as much revenue for the top 200 apps compared to the top 200 apps in Android Market and mobile developers will still favor iOS as their primary development target.
— Larry Berkin, Vice President at Tapjoy

Android will become the new feature phone.
— Jeff Haynie, CEO of Appcelerator

The year Android goes beyond phones…
— Patrick Mork, Director at Google

Google/Android will release its response to Siri now that it is clear that Google is facing its first real threat in search engine dominance in over a decade.
— Lilly Kam, Program Manager at Project Pengyou

We think that 2012 will be the year when Android manages to montize its users effectively. At the moment, Apple iPhone users are far more likely to spend money using their phone because the payment system is better designed to encourage this kind of usage, and companies recognise this. For example, Rovio, in which we have invested, sells the Angry Birds games on iPhone, but offers it free, but with advertising, on Android. The coming year could, and should, be the one where this changes, and Android makes a step change. Given the growing sales of Android phones, especially Samsung phones, it could be a very significant trend. We at Atomico watch the evolution of Android with great interest.
— Niklas Zennstrom, CEO at Atomico


The 4G (LTE, WiMAX, TD LTE etc) network, with 100 % internet protocol transport will become pervasive and that equates to: a) A non-linear value-chain business model will emerge b) The incumbent bureaucratic Mobile Network Operator (owners); will cannibalize themselves to be a network DUMBPIPE c) The agile anti tariff Software Services, Digital Media and Consumer Brands; to be the new majority revenue service’s SMARTPIPE d) The Handset manufacturer; to be the ever evolving marginalized ENDPIPE.
— Joe Jasin, Managing Director at DNA Investments

Smartphone sales grow to 65% of all phone sales in China. iPhone 5 released by China Mobile and runs on TD-LTE test network. Total Chinese Android phones outsell foreign brands in Q4/2012. Million USD mobile ad campaign realized in China. Sina Weibo shut down by Chinese Government for at least 1 month due to user postings.
— Alvin Graylin, CEO and Co-Founder at mInfo

I think 2012 will be the year of the low-cost smartphone. Prices for fully-featured, powerful Android devices will reach $100, and at these levels will be affordable to mainstream audiences in emerging markets. This is good for the handset industry as it will accelerate adoption of smartphones. More importantly, it will also put the Internet into the hands of people who have never owned a PC. We see this as an important transformation for society broadly, giving ready access to computing power and a sea of information.
— Jay Goldberg, Analyst at Deutsche Bank

My prediction is that tablet-like devices become ubiquitous—like cell phones are today. That these devices become the method for communicating, educating, and transacting sales. Cell phones will be built into these devices.This will open up big possibilities for educating the masses all over the world. Knowledge will flow freely across the world.
— Vivek Wadhwa, Vice President of Academics and Innovation at Singularity University

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